Monday, October 3, 2016

我的投资手记(2)

03/10/2016

没有毅力与坚持的人,很难持续性的记录自己的心路历程。我就是那一类。

至七月后,这是第一次更新资料。

也差不多一个季度后,回看上一轮介绍的五个潜力股变动如何?


07/2016
30/09/16
Change
Change %
建议
OCK
0.820
0.800
-0.02
-2.4%

Bison
1.450
2.000
0.55
37.9%

Econpile
1.400
1.690
0.29
17.0%

Red Sena
0.405
0.415
0.10
24.7%

GHL System
0.920
0.815
-0.105
-11%


短短三个月不到,Bison与Econpile便交出诱人的成绩。

其中,Bison涨幅最为惊人相信接下来会有小幅调动然后稳定下来。近期也没什么好消息,只是有一家投资银行(Nomura)纳入他们的研究与投资范围。另外,他们也确定在Rawang设立食物处理中心(For Fast Moving Consumer Goods那一块).除此之外,他们也在考察着几个策略地点设立他们的货物物流管理中心。9个月财报(9M2016)也显示业务进展顺利(获利占了全年财测85%)。如果你问我是否还值得进场,只要你承担得起下行风险至1.70 (17%),可是长远的回报(2-3年)可能是2.50(25%)。

Nomura与CIMB最近的TP介于2.05-2.25。

至于Econpile,净利飙41%是主要原因。相信接下来工程合约竞投会陆续递补完成的合约。如今未完成/进行中工程能够让他们接下来几个财政年度会继续忙碌。政府的基建工程陆续开工并且没有迹象显示会延迟或延后再议。上升势头有限但是绝对是一只值得持有的潜力股。TP(2年)1.80-2.00。

OCK持续徘徊在0.80-0.82之间,支撑点不错。最近没什么特别新闻,缅甸与越南的收购合拼案还在进行中。相信接下来几年的财报都会有不错的成长空间。可是,股价成长会局限于private placement。当然公司成长绝对需要新的资金注入。而如果institution investor愿意入股并长期持有绝对会对公司有利。相信接下来的两年里rihgt issues,private placement与warrant issuance绝对会是公司快速拓展的新资金的来源。

Red Sena则在平稳中上下。值得一提的就是低价股的微变动都能转化成高巴仙率变动。Red Sena这还没介绍的股项是Bursa首只SPAC的非石油类特别收购用途公司。这公司将会物色有潜质食品关联公司。而其主要管理人为前F&N高管人员,经验,能耐与人脉兼具。食品制造行业前景绝对可期,加上马来西亚特有的清真食品认证管理,可以让食品公司外销至庞大的穆斯林市场。当然,挑战就是如何物色到合适的公司并且能合理出价收购呢?石油业的几个SPAC项目最终收购不成功而需要解散。

GHL System面对着沉重的买压,股票也持续滑落。然而,这个与金融股项息息相关的公司在经济不景气下却绝对有逆市而上的能力。2017年将会是信用卡与转帐卡的改革年,各大银行都在2016年6月开始更换新一代高安全性的新卡--(pin and pay/ paywave)。而国行的政策也是迈向减少钞票使用转向无现金交易 (cashless transaction)。虽然国行调低了银行间清算帐目(interbank clearance charges)与手续收费,银行的转幅减低,各银行的信用卡优惠进而减少,但是各银行承担的无现金交易宣传费却是维持不变。惟有增加他们的顾客基底与门市刷卡机 (merchant POS/payment gateway)才能拉补赚益。 GHL System获得几家银行的独家代理推广门市刷卡机并推出新的无线机种绝对有能力让他们赚取更高的销售额并增加更多客户群。加上他们拥有国外市场让他们有更大的推动市场空间。

这一次另外再推荐2只潜力股项:Kerjaya Prospek(RM2.30)与 Sunway Construction(RM1.60)这二只股项都是工程股项 (construction related share)。

注:本人并非具备专业资格的投资顾问。以上所有文章皆为本人看法,部分资讯摘自投资银行的推荐 (Investment Bank Recommendation Paper)。如有任何投资疑问,当请联络您的投资顾问为你分析。


Sunday, July 10, 2016

我的投资手记

10/07/2016
开始工作后就学习开始投资。甚至于说大学时期就有开始将储蓄投资在蓝筹股。

虽然局限于资金与risk appetite, 没能大有斩获,但是蝇头小利倒是有。现在投资的股票能让我赚取4-5%年利的股息回酬(Dividend Return),资本增长(capital gain)平均10%。当然各体股票还是有部分的资本亏损。

我倒觉得有时我的眼光/直觉不错,总能物色到基本面不错,价格适中并适合中长期投资的公司(3-5Years period)。当然,看走眼的公司(好的/不好的)的都有。
I)     Luxchem
II)    WCT
III)  Wing Tai Malaysia
IV)    TiongNam Logistics
V)     DKLS  

社会新鲜人,能储到一笔资金投资也不容易。最怕就是买了股票然后看着其大跌而不敢再投资了。暂时来说我还没遇到这样的情形。

或许,身为一位贷款/融资银行家(Loan/Mortgage/Credit Analyst)让我具备了解公司基本面/财务管理的知识。更容易分析与了解公司业务的进展与财务规划。

如果今天你问我手头上关注的股项有哪些,我也乐于分享。这些股项都并非蓝筹股,属于小而美的股项。其具备基本面,合理财务管理及增长潜能让其得到我的青睐。当然,因为资金限制,也并非所有股项都有投资。

1)OCK Group Bhd
电讯基建股(Telecommunication/Infrastructure)。主要业务为承建电讯塔与承租电讯塔于电讯公司。业务遍布东南亚ie Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar。盈利多数来自马来西亚本国业务(大约80%)。其努力开拓国外业务由以缅甸业务最为成功。手头上拥承建缅甸电讯公司(Telenor,与DiGi母公司相同)至今工程进展顺利。

2)Bison Consolidated Bhd
消费/贸易股(Consumer/Trading)。本地自创便利商店品牌。主要业务集中巴生谷的商场/轻快铁车站/商业区。主要商业对手为传统杂货铺/7-11/其他品牌便利店/小型超级市场(99Speedmart)。致力于拓展Ready To Eat (Sandwich,Bread, Salad, 罐装饮料)消费市场。其潜能:
I)          在于本地便利店业务还有很大的进步空间,竞争还算温和。只要出国旅游的都知道本地便利店还有许多进步的空间。即使全利(QL)引进的全家便利店(Family Mart)加入战围,将会是锦上添花。
II)        加上配合MRT/LRT Extension沿路开发其便利店相信能让业务爆炸性成长。
III)       如果能与知名食物品牌配合开发ready to eat这一项,相信能超越其主要竞争对手7-11(其与Brahim联合开发这一块)。

3)Econpile Holdings Bhd
4)Red Sena Bhd
5)GHL Systems Bhd


那么另外三个公司就在下次说明其看点在哪吧。


注:本人并非具备专业资格的投资顾问。以上所有文章皆为本人看法,部分资讯摘自投资银行的推荐 (Investment Bank Recommendation Paper)。如有任何投资疑问,当请联络您的投资顾问为你分析。

Monday, November 17, 2014

Investment Portfolio

Should have start thinking what the way of earning additional income is instead of solely depends on my poor little paycheck.

Well, by starting some simple writing and post it on blog maybe? Hei, that wasn’t helping for earning extra income! Ya,  I m just a attention seeker…. Haha!!

Well, giving ideas on how to invest might some way help others? That still aint wont help you earn anything! So, it is just some sharing, for me future biography maybe?

Ok, I have started my investment portfolio since… err… 2007 maybe? Though that time my investment was under my mum’s account. So, until today I can consider myself a 7years old investor, not an amateur yet far from being a professional I guess?

So, what’s my investment portfolio return? You are nothing if you are unable to gain a handsome profit from your investment right?

So, here it comes...

The biggest profit and fastest profit I managed to earn thanks to “FABER”.

Bought 2,000 unit at the price 1.58 (15/05/13) = RM3,160
Sold 2,000 unit at the price 2.55 (14/08/13)     = RM5,100
Inclusive dividend payout of          RM150      = RM5,250 (net gain RM2,090, 66% return)



Well, handsome enough for getting 66% return over the 3months period?

I could have considered myself lucky to earn fast profit within a short period. To be honest, I was targeting the price up to RM1.98 (25% return) by the year end of 2013 and sell it.

To be surprise, the luck came close to me as FABER decided to buy over PROPEL from UEM under the Khazanah National initiative to merge their asset management entity under one roof. This kind of surprise wasn’t come so often.

As to date, FABER has completed the merging and their revenue expected to be heading north. (Price 2.98 as at 17/11/14, 52weeks highest 3.73, lowest 2.53).

The capital was provided by my mum as the upfront payment for my new car. So, I gained more than she was expected. In the return, she was paying less for my car downpayment, what a win-win situation.

Things should be started with something interesting right? Is that excited you enough?

More to come in future…

Written on 7.15pm 17/11/2014

Honouring my obligations, settling PTPN

After 5years servicing my 1st ever loan – My education loan, PTPTN I managed to settle my debt with the aid from my mum. Finally, it comes to the end.

Thanks to the government initiative for waiver of 20% for those who are willing to settle their loan one-off under Budget 2015, my mum has offered me zero-interest installments  to settle the my outstanding balance and enjoy the 20% discount.

Although the policy has raised a big debate, but undeniable it is welcome amongst the graduates who has the capabilities to settle their debts and being rewarded for their willingness to honor their obligations. Well, it seems like not everyone else were as lucky as me, having a mum who are willing (or should said having the capacity) to help their children and reduce the youngsters’ burden. Some might even questioning those who are able to paid one off why at 1st place was granted the loan? I can’t answer for others, but in my case my mum was retired from her job and received pension from government.

 Well, the world wasn’t always fair, so just take it and move on. (I always feel unfair too why I am still a banker who earns little, but face it ok? Work harder rather than mumbling there.)

So, what has the 20% discount mean to me? Here are some illustrations:


Debit
Credit
Amount
I borrowed for my 3years degree course in IPTA.
RM19,500-00

RM19,500-00
Being charged 3% interest as I do not change to 1% flat ujrah (Repayable over 120months instalment in gradual term)
RM  3,821-38

RM23,321-38
Total amount inclusive interest


RM23,321-38
                               



RM19,500-00
Actual interest charged to-date
RM2,126-52

RM21,626-52
Actual amount paid to-date

RM7,814-80
RM13,811-72
20% Discount

RM2,726.34
RM11,049-38
Insurance coverage
-RM113-36

RM10,936-22



Interest
Payment
Principal



RM19,500-00
FY2010
RM  48-75

RM19,548-75
FY2011
RM579-63
RM1,044-80
RM19,083-58
FY2012
RM558-37
RM1,400-00
RM18,241-95
FY2013
RM521-57
RM2,400-00
RM16,363-52
FY2014
RM418-20
RM2,970-00
RM13,811-72
Total
RM2,126-52
RM7,814-80


As you have seen from the table above, I should have paid RM23K over the 10years period and I have paid  until to-date for 5years, with total settlement of RM18,751-02 (Paid RM7,814-80+ Final settlement of RM10,936-22). Thus, a cost savings of RM4,750-36 in calculation. However, I have made more payment than the schedule payment, thus, I believe the actual payment will be less than RM23K should I continue the payment until the last payment. That, was only a theoretical illustration.

In fact, for the amount I have borrowed RM19,500-00 plus interest charged up-to date RM2,126-52, total RM21,626-52. I have paid RM18,751-02 to settled,

Cost Saving         = RM21,626.52 – RM18,751.02
                                = RM2,875.50 (13.3%)

For the real saving I received from the 20% discount was solely 13.3%. Despite that, excluded the interest, the PTPTN has only lose RM748-98 of principal. If accounted for discounted cashflow, I believe the government has merely undertaken minimal losses only.

Of course, during FY2014 I entitled for another 10% additional discount (RM220) for monthly installments I have paid on-time. Thus, I actually does enjoy higher cost savings.

It’s fine for me being rewarded for being a good paymaster (because I am, haha!!).

Everything does has a cost, what we have borrowed we should honor and settled it. We have enjoyed the benefits; it’s time to pay back for the sake of next generation.

Just pay accordingly to your ability instead of letting the interest roll and roll.  As you have seen from the illustration, the interest charges might as high as RM500+ a year.

For those who arguing they should not charge interest for the education loan, change your mindset and put it as administration charges, it would be less uncomfortable for you.

Or, pay on time monthly, and enjoy the 10% discount, it’s almost reducing your interest in half.

Don’t ever think that someone who are able to pay installments for Car loans, Housing Loans or even using a credit card and enjoying ZPP to buy electronics gadgets or facial packages are unable to service their obligations. They can but they are just unwilling. Of course there will be argument whereby the car is meant for them to travel for working purpose. There are always excuses to cover their back. So, no point arguing for this.

Of course, there are some friends who are waiting rewards/dreaming presents from sky drop ie cancellation/waiver for PTPTN repayment. Free education at the cost of billions from taxpayer wasn’t a wise decision. Are you willing to pay a higher tax when you are one of the taxpayer (Definitely not for me, I m currently paying PCB RM30 per month and feeling imbalance already!!)?

You will definitely feel the sweetness from your hardship if you work hard enough during your university time and graduate as first class degree holder. Then, you will get waiver…


If you are not, pay the cost and you will appreciate it more. 

Every comment here is just my personal view. No heart feelings...

Saturday, September 17, 2011

令人头昏脑涨的进城记

懊恼的一天!没想到进城那么小事,却让我那么劳累。

回到家,才通过晚间新闻知道电动火车服务因铁轨刚修复,所以影响了服务。但是,问题是其网站列明只是延迟5-10分钟,我却等了45分钟才挤上已爆满的车厢。能成功挤上,是我的荣幸而车站还尚有50人以上未能挤进。在等待的当儿,看起来大概有1、200人吧。真的不是夸张。

其实,这么简单的小事,但是KTMB却无法做到待客至上的服务。最起码的,在车站完全看不到任何告示通知使用者该服务因修复铁轨而影响服务,甚至任何的现场播报也无提及。真是令人失望。那块班次抵达播报板,是骗人的~~


透明与有效率的管理,似乎就是本土公共交通服务的最大缺陷。如此简单的事务,却无法有效执行。

熟悉本地公共交通的人士,想必对KTMB恶名昭彰的电动火车服务有所了解,班次延误时有所闻,最糟糕的是车厢完爆,塞得简直就是人贴人。今天不是上下班时刻已是如此,如果是工作日不是简直就瘫痪?想到接下来的日子需要依靠其去上班,简直就要头大了!

只因为今天实在无法忍受那个完全拥挤,挤得让人完全不舒服的车厢所以决定半途下站转换轻快铁再换单轨火车。就这样,本来只需RM3.70(KTMB Kepong Sentral- KL Sentral RM1.60,KL Monorail Tun Sambathan- KL Monorail Bukit Bintang RM2.10), 最后变成3部曲 RM4.00(KTMB Kepong Sentral - KTMB Bank Negara RM1.10, RapidKL Ampang Line Bandaraya- Hang Tuah RM1.70, KL Monorail Hang Tuah- Bukit Bintang RM1.20)。无形中,就增加了RM0.30的费用,但是省却了拥挤不适感及从KL Sentral徒步到KL Monorail Tun Sambathan的路途,虽如此,但是在转站中还是要攀爬多次的楼梯。

在Bukit Bintang金三角地带,下午3时左右还看到交警在维持交通次序,以为他们是多么的尽责维护繁忙地带的交通管制,怎么知道几分钟后就看到风急电驰而驶过的无牌皇族车。车上坐着的应该只是一名贵妇,或许刚在附近购物完毕然后赶着去五星酒店叹茶?也无从考究~难为了那些车主被迫塞在路口几分钟,眼巴巴地看着空荡荡的十字路口~~

另外,还在金三角的十字路口(就是Lot10对望着McD的那个路口)看到大大的布条反对征用私人地段作为捷运发展地段。晚上回到家才看到原来中午时分有记者会,哎哟错过了好戏!

那么难忘的搭乘有轨公共交通系统,让我在回程中放弃了它们。转向使用有轮公共交通--巴士。基本上,还是能让人满意的。从Bukit Bintang搭到Kotaraya也即是旧时代的吉隆坡黄金区--茨厂街附近,只需RM1.00,车程也只是短短的10分钟。穿越茨厂街到书局找书买文具也就回家了。从哪儿搭巴士回到KTMB Kepong Sentral,RM1.50,耗时1小时左右。

那么全程下来接近5小时的进城记,花在办事、用餐、逛书局说起来我只用了大约一小时多一些。扣除部分步行的时间,那么剩下3小时多的时间,我是用在等待及搭乘公共交通的路途上。为了,那短短的一小时,竟然让我多花了3小时来到达目的地,说起来还真让人懊恼!如果选择了驾车进城,时间可以减少一半以上,但是车油+泊车费应该也是搭乘公共交通的费用(Transportation fees RM6.50+ parking fees RM3.00) times 2(注:通常per entrance最便宜RM5.00,而从我家到Bukit Bintang大约20km)了咯~

时间与金钱上的衡量,就看自己怎么拿捏。当然,我这一类型穷学生,有的就是时间与青春,没的当然是金钱。其实,这样的方式,我还真是第一次体验,也算是不错啦!穷则变,变则通,尝试不同的方式也能抵达。



另外想说的是,捷运工程将于年底或明年初开始展开。作为吉隆坡市中心提升公共交通的主要工程之一,想必将会影响到现有的公共系统。势必将会让已体无完肤的公路系统塞上加塞,已近饱和的有轨公共交通系统也会接近瘫痪。

政府必须想办法将人流、车流在工程展开时很好的在上班时刻导流进城,下班时刻疏导出城,否则民怨更深。如果待工程才展开时才计划,可想而知情况将会是不堪设想的。尤其,佳节时刻,或者城中有大型活动举办中,如何让游客、旅客、当地商家、运输、上班族、学生们的日习不受影响,势必考验政府的能耐。

建议政府在工程开始前的3个月便开始重新规划,现有的公共交通系统,缩短班次的间隔时刻,并提高准时效率,电动火车的次数尤其需要大大提升。而有轮公共交通需要重新规划,确定哪些地方是工程影响最深的地方,需要规划更多的班次以减低当地私人交通的使用率。并且班次讯息透明化让使用者能好好的安排及预计行程时间能有效提升使用者的信心。

重点在于让现有的进城人士适应工程开始后的梦魇日子,并且让他们开始唾弃私人交通工具转而使用公共交通。公共交通系统的效率与省时度,绝对能让拥车一族改变并开始仰赖公共交通,进而促使公路腾出空间让有轮公共交通与运输业能顺利通行。

惹人诟病的公共交通系统,绝对需要在短期内提升以减低工程上所带来的不便。否则,经济上的损失,绝对会为未来的情况付出代价。而这个代价可能是让当地社区的经济带来重创而需时重新建立。