Friday, October 29, 2010

緊縮財務政策與寬鬆財務政策(Contractionary Fiscal Policy vs Expansionary Fiscal Policy )(PART I)


首先,先了解何謂財務政策(Fiscal Policy)?財務政策即為政府的行政預算開銷及收入政策。在此政策下,政府可以通過增加行政開銷或縮減開銷(Government Expenditure)作爲調整國内經濟熱度的機制。那麽另外的手段呢也包括稅務徵收政策(Taxation) 或者政府發展投資項目 (Government Investment) 來影響國内經濟。

此政策最大的弊病在於其無法在短期内看到顯赫的效果,會出現實行空窗期(Operational Lag),也即是推展到實行期間需要時間實行而可能影響到此政策的有效性。此問題的衍生來自財務政策需要經過法定途徑來推行,即通過國務院/國家議會通過,而這些途徑是需要一些時間來通過。效率斷層(Efficiency Lag) 也是其中一個問題,無法有效的斷定需要增加或者縮減多少開銷來達到有效率的促進方案。

另外,追根究底的是此政策與貨幣政策(monetary policy) 相比下很大層面上包含了很多的政治考量,較爲不中立。財務政策的推行很大程度上在於執政的政府的政治方向與執政方針,我們稱之爲左派與右派政府。左派為較爲保守與實行小政府或稱爲少量政府干涉市場行爲政策(Less Government Interruption Policy);右派則為大政府執政方式(Big Government),主張政府更多的牽涉在市場上讓經濟更加活絡。

最佳的例子為英國的工黨與保守黨及美國的民主黨與共和黨。他們在執政時期都顯現出了不同派系所進行的財務政策。

英國保守黨在1980年代執政時推展的私有化政策及提高稅務徵收都是很明晰的保守及小政府政策。在鉄娘子首相-馬格列塔撤 (Margaret Thatcher) 的帶領下,通過私有化很多政府機構如水電氣局及鐵路局等,減少政府津貼及提高稅務,成功扭轉英國長期的赤字及減低高企的失業率。其雷厲風行的行爲讓其得鉄娘子的封號。

美國民主黨的大政府政策其實可以追溯至每一任民主黨總統任期的時候。其中近期最成功的例子可推崇即為1992-2000時期的總統比爾克林頓 (Bill Clinton) 。其在在任期時推行的大政府策略成功讓美國經濟活絡並且保持著政府財政營收在盈利。

那麽衍生至今日,英國工黨在近期公佈其2011年度財政預算案中宣佈將縮減公共開銷及減低赤字以達到開支收入平衡;相比于美國民主黨推行的增加赤字維持政府龐大開銷形式及增加公共開支。

在經濟學上,最大的特點在於面對同樣的難題,可以有千百种解決方案。但是最終只有兩种答案,即成功或失敗。而在於這問題上經濟學基本分爲兩個派系新傳統學派 (Neoclassical School) 的政府不干預自由市場定位與 凱恩斯學派 (Keynesian School) 政府干預活絡市場定位。

新傳統學派與保守派政府策略一致,即認爲市場會因市場的供需來自動調節,政府的干預只會讓市場價格失衡。而凱恩斯學派則認爲市場處於缺乏資金投注與市場缺乏購買力,政府的介入能彌補這方面的不足。

今天,全球面對的金融危機本質是什麽造成的呢?這很大程度上取決於消費人的心態上。

待續...

Friday, October 15, 2010

大馬2011財政預算案


而華語則是作者本身看法,與該報關無關
KUALA LUMPUR:
Following are the highlights of 2011 Budget tabled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, who is also Finance Minister, at the Dewan Rakyat today:

* A mixed development project including affordable houses to be developed at a cost of RM10 billion in Sungai Buloh and is expected to be completed by 2025.
配合政府經濟轉型計劃中慾發展雙溪毛糯橡膠研究院3000多公頃的膠園。爲了實現居者有屋的目的,卻是值得鼓勵,而在Greater KL計劃下的捷運也囊括在服務範圍内,確實配合到居住與交通設施相容的好計劃,值得讚賞!發展計劃卻交由政府投資臂膀執行卻讓人懷疑有朋黨裙帶關係。應該將部分計劃交由私人界公開競投、策劃與執行,以提升計劃商業價值,間接提升民生水準與私人界競爭能力。最重要的是能保留特定面積的綠肺,提高生活素質。


* Another landmark project "Warisan Merdeka" which includes a 100-storey tower, the tallest in Malaysia, at a cost of RM5 billion to be completed by 2015

這計劃最令人詬病的。需不需要再花費50億進行政治正名工程呢?那麽快就要張顯政績?馬哈迪也不過是掌權後期才推行如此龐大的政績工程來正名。何況這“默迪卡遺跡”推測將在吉隆坡黃金地帶默迪卡廣場範圍推行。此計劃將會將默迪卡廣場--即Stadium Merdeka給重建。此遺跡將隨發展洪流而淹沒在歷史的海洋中。第二個Dataran Pahlawan,面目全非。值得醒思如此的工程相比于歷史文化,何者來得重要?雖然歷史已成過去,但是這地方是讓後代們永遠記得歷史的真相,各族如何團結爭取獨立與獨立的重要意義。50億作爲一筆基金來維修該Stadium與設置博物院其實已綽綽有餘。該基金甚至能作爲推廣各族文化,推動歷史還原與保存運動及提升各地博物院的經濟來源。這不是比所謂的1Malaysia計劃來的實際?相信此計劃將胎死腹中,死灰復燃的機會將在大選后,如果還是納先生~~


* Development of large-scale integrated Aquaculture Zones in Pitas, Sungai Telaga and Sungai Padas in Sabah as well as Batang Ai and Tanjung Manis in Sarawak with an allocation of RM252 million.

作爲鞏固東馬票房的糖果,2.52億確實值得。並且這也符合在當地發展的計劃。推行大型綜合農業發展區縂好過比一些不切實際的發展計劃或政績工程來的好。與州政府配合需要更details的策劃,將計劃的價值最大型化,否則只會淪爲傳聞中朋黨裙帶的袋子而不是人民的肚子。

* Allocation of RM135 million for basic infrastructure to encourage farmers participation in high value agriculture activities including swiftlet nests(燕窩).

推行價值1.35億的農業基建發展來鼓勵農民參與高價值農業活動。

* Extension of income tax deduction incentive for investors and income tax exemption for companies undertaking food production activities until 2015.

延長稅務回扣/減稅與投資者及免除所得稅于飲食生産業至2015。鼓勵外資投資與本地市場與發展飲食生産。這也是配合大馬要成爲全球清真食物生産地(Islamic Halal Food Production Hub)的努力之一。


* RM85 million to provide infrastructure facilities to facilitate construction of hotels and resorts in remote areas with the potential to attract tourists.
發展旅遊業的工程,8千5百萬提升基礎建設。馬來西亞確實有很多還未開發的旅遊景點,除了提供基礎建設其實還可為偏遠地方的旅遊景點提供更多獎掖。而旅遊民宿計劃則提供更多訓練及擴展參與單位能將該計劃達到經濟效益。所了解的民宿計劃大部分只限于馬來村莊,無法顯現馬來西亞真正的民風與習俗。旅遊部協助設置民宿網站來提升服務能或多或少提高知名度。


* RM50 million to construct several shaded walkways in the KLCC-Bukit Bintang vicinity.

旅遊業提升工程,無建議與看法。只是希望能配合到未來捷運計劃並且無需到時再花費重建,或不user friendly而遭旅客或金三角購物客嫌棄且棄置不用。


* Development of world's first integrated eco-nature resort at a cost of RM3 billion by Nexus Karambunai in Sabah to commence next year.謠傳中將興建新賭場的綜合生態旅遊景點,雖然已遭政府宣佈無賭場計劃涵括在内。希望這生態旅遊計劃確實能確保生態不遭受影響,並將破壞減至最低。沙巴的生態環境確實能吸引許多旅客,但是除此計劃外,還需一些景點來配合以加強沙巴的旅遊吸睛力。賭場能吸引的人潮似乎與想接觸大自然的旅客無法相連。


* Abolishing of import duty on 300 goods preferred by tourists and locals, at 5 to 30 per cent, to promote Malaysia as a shopping heaven in Asia.
剔出300項物品5-30%的進口稅務。還是爲了旅遊業。本地内需確實受惠,但是是否真正能受惠呢?通脹能否被壓制?各行各業,那一行最受惠???如果有投資股票,貿易與服務業值得買進。(BJretails, Aeon, Parkson)


* RM119 million for the development of local content creation, hosting local content and unlocking new channels for content.

推展本地藝術與攝影行業的努力。是否能讓該行業受惠呢?不奢望能達到韓國那種程度,那麽最低也要達到領囯的水準吧?希望只要是國產電影都能受惠。

* Exemption of sales tax on all types of mobile phones.

是否有這個需要呢?現在已人手一機或以上了!滲透率達107%左右!不如更多獎掖用於發展網絡資訊基設??或者更低廉的網絡收費??更令人讚賞的網絡服務素質??

* RM850 million for infrastructure support to accelerate corridor and regional development.

8億5千萬發展各阿先生時代的政績工程。持續的推動確實能讓各州受惠而減低吉隆坡的超密度發展,也能達成個地經濟活動量化。減少流入吉隆坡至各地以提高吉隆坡的生活素質。

* RM411 million for research, development and commercialisation activity to be the platform for enhancing value-added activities across economic sectors.4.11億的經費來資助研究與發展及商業化產品。應該是獎掖。如何申請?哪一部門負責?

* Establishment of a Special Innovation Unit (UNIK) under the Prime Minister's Department with an allocation of RM71 million for next year to commercialise R&D findings by universities and research institutions.爲何那麽多部長卻總是要讓首相署部門那麽忙碌呢?可以下放至其他部門嗎?或者成立各部門聯合委員會來執行不行嗎?又是官僚問題作祟。

* RM200 million for the purchase of creative products such as high quality, locally-produced films, dramas and documentaries.

* Rate of service tax to be increased from five to six per cent. 服務稅由5%增至6%,應該會引起通脹吧?這是要提出消費稅(GST)的前奏。因爲消費稅開始將會是在4-5%的範圍,讓人覺得消費稅更適用且繳交的稅務更少。高招!

* Service tax to be imposed on paid television broadcasting services.

其實有綫電視的壟斷保護政策已過期,付費電視臺的競爭將開始明朗化。但是Astro老闆財大氣粗,誰與爭鋒是自尋短見!

* Strengthening the revenue collection system by increasing enforcement and audit as well as coverage on all parties that should be paying taxes.

除了提高收取稅務的能力,是否政府也該提出如何更善用所得到的稅金呢?每年的稽查報告都顯示政府部門財政有紕漏,改善這問題人民信服提高,自然稅務繳交也心甘情願。



* Restructuring and strengthening of education and training with the sum of RM29.3 billion allocated for Education Ministry, RM10.2 billion (Higher Education Ministry) and RM627 million (Human Resource Ministry).

* Establishment of Talent Corporation under the Prime Minister''s Office in early 2011 to develop an expert workforce database as well as collaborate closely with talent networks globally.
又是首相署?人力資源部拿來擺美?疑人不用,用人不疑這道理難道不適用?會引起各方人士懷疑首相是否念權抑或是部長無能耐?所謂的人才,都被你趕出囯了,現在才努力,雖然不遲,但是是否需要檢討一系列的官僚作風呢?人民確實想回國服務,但是卻諸多阻擾,能成事嗎?

* For the Ministry of Education, a sum of RM6.4 billion is allocated for Development Expenditure to build and upgrade schools, hostels, facilities and equipment as well as uphold the status of the teaching profession.

* RM213 million is allocated to reward high performance schools as well as for the remuneration of Principals, Head Teachers and Excellent Teachers.

* The Government will increase pre-school enrolment rate to a targeted 72 per cent by end 2011 through additional 1,700 classes, strengthen the curriculum as well as appoint 800 pre-school graduate teachers.


* The Government also allocates RM111 million for PERMATA programme including the construction of the second phase of Sekolah PERMATA Pintar school complex, 32 PERMATA Children Centres (PAPN) and financing operations of 52 completed PAPNs.

* RM250 million allocated for Development Expenditure for religious schools, Chinese-type schools, Tamil national schools, missionary schools and Government-assisted schools nationwide
.
2億5千萬,提升各源流囯民型學校設施費用,10個甕,5個蓋...蓋的了哪?

* Recognising the importance of Islamic education, the Government will provide assistance per capita for primary and secondary rakyat religious schools with an allocation of RM95 million.

* To provide competent and quality teachers and instructors to better guide and educate students, the Government allocates RM576 million in the form of scholarships for those wishing to further their studies.

* RM213 million is allocated to enhance proficiency in Bahasa Malaysia, strengthen the English language as well as streamline the standard curriculum for primary schools.

* The Government will recruit 375 native-speaking teachers including from the United Kingdom and Australia to further enhance teaching of English.

* The number of PhD qualified academic staff will be increased to 75 per cent in research universities and to 60 per cent in other public institutions of higher learning with an allocation of RM20 million.

* Excise duty exemption be increased from 50 per cent to 100 per cent on national vehicles purchased by the disable.

* Existing tax relief of up to a maximum of RM5,000 be extended to cover other expenses such as day care centre, cost incurred to employ caretakers for parents and other daily needs such as diapers

.5000回扣于長輩護理與醫藥費用。確實是個體貼的政策。值得讚賞!

* Stamp duty exemption of 50 per cent be given on loan agreement instruments to finance first-time purchase of houses.

* Full import duty and 50 per cent excise duty exemption was granted to franchise holders of hybrid cars.

* Implementation of 1Malaysia Training Programme by Community Colleges, National Youth Training Institutes, Giat Mara and Industrial Training Institutes to commence in January 2011 with an allocation of RM500 million.

* The establishment of National Wage Consultation Council as the main platform for wage determination.

* The establishment of 1Malaysia Youth Fund with an allocation of RM20 million.

* Monthly allowance for KAFA teachers will be increased to RM800 compared with RM500 currently.

* Increase in monthly allowance for the Chairman of JKKK and JKKP, Tok Batin, Chairman of JKKK Orang Asli and Chairman of Kampung Baru to RM800 compared with RM450 currently.

* Increase in meeting attending allowance to all comittee members from RM30 to RM50.


* Special Financial Assistance amounting to RM500 to be provided to all civil servants from Grade 54 and below, including contract officers and retirees.

500令吉的特別財務津貼與54級以下公務員。體恤開學將至花費龐大的家長們。

* The abolishment of the Competency Level Assessment or PTK to be replaced with a more suitable evaluation system by June 2011.

* Extension of services of Pegawai Khidmat Singkat for an additional period of one year from December 2010.

* Raising the amount of loan from RM10,000 to RM20,000 for additional works on low-cost houses for Support Group Two.

* Raising the maximum loan eligibility to RM450,000 compared with RM360,000 currently, effective January 1, 2011.

* Increasing the rate for Funeral Arrangement Assistance to RM3,000.

* Allowing flexibility to self-determine fully-paid maternity leave not exceeding 90 days from the current 60 days subject to a total of 300 days of maternity leave throughout the tenure of service.

更人性化的政策!值得讚賞!但是,能否加強公務人員的服務態度??

* Introduction of "Skim Rumah Pertamaku" which will provide a guarantee on down payment of 10 per cent for houses below RM220,000 for first-time house buyers.

* To assist estate workers to own low-cost houses through a scheme managed by BSN.

是否真的能幫助園丘勞工建築自身的廉價屋子呢?是否能符合他們生活及基本素質呢?

* Construction and repair of 12,000 houses nationwide particularly in Sabah and Sarawak with an allocation of RM300 million.


* Establishment of a "1Malaysia Smart Consumer" portal.

* Introduction of the Distribution of Essential Goods programme to standardise prices across areas.

* Introduction of the Retail Shop Transformation Programme, Automotive Workshop and Community Market projects.

* The launch of a Private Pension Fund in 2011.私人退休基金將于2011推行。是否能由私人界主導?那麽,雇員們的未來將更有保障。退休基金爲了爭取客戶必須提高更高的囘酬率于客戶,而投資在高風險組合投資,間接的提高了雇員們的風險。需要留意更新的進展與法令。


* The launch of Bumiputera Property Trust Foundation with the size of RM1 billion and syariah-compliant.協助土著達到居者有屋,但是會否成爲第二個高教貸學金?有借無還?會否規定購買產業最高價值限定?否則將會助長房地產泡沫化。

* To assist children particularly those from the low-income group to excel academically, the 1MDB will provide multi-vitamins for primary school students.

* Rebate of electricity bill payment for monthly consumption of below RM20 will be continued.

* The toll rates in four highways owned by PLUS Expressway Berhad will not be raised for the next five years effective immediately. EPF與PNB聯合收購南北大道計劃,都是政府的咯,他說不要收費也行咯!但是在其努力推行GLC私人化及推動股市市場價值流量,說要減低政府擁股率現在卻要私有化,這招是否背道而馳呢?


* A review of the current minimum bankruptcy limit of RM30,000.

* The application for Permanent Resident status may be submitted after five years of residence.内政部唯一關係政策。提高國名登記侷的效率。這也間接能協助外國人力資源流入本國的政策,尤其是擕眷移民。是否也能開放工作准証與外籍配偶?

* Providing four buses for Mobile Clinic.

* Formulating a new development model for Orang Asli.

* JHEOA will be restructured and strengthened as Jabatan Kemajuan Orang Asli。

被忽視的群體,能否通過這次的行政機構改革而改善?



Read more: Budget 2011 highlights http://www.nst.com.my/nst/articles/Budget2011highlights/Article/#ixzz12R0XV8TJ



總的來說,這財政預算案是沒什麽大驚喜,因爲驚喜已在這預算案公佈前先一步在政府經濟轉型計劃(ETP)時公佈,然後煙酒的罪惡稅也在之前提高(香煙20支裝每盒起10仙),而博彩稅者于6月由6%提高至8%。如果是大選前的預算案,相比2008年的預算案及追加預算案,這不過是小兒科。糖果還沒派吧?不要忘了還有第十大馬計劃還未公佈詳情。

公共開支與發展經費的比率似乎介於3:1之間。這是因爲本國情況特殊,公務員體系過於龐大,即所謂的大政府操作方式。差不多什麽都攬在身上,導致体胖身腫。單單首相署部門運作已達158億的新高紀錄便可得而知。

公共經濟學裏所提倡的公平與效率(equality and efficiency)衡量是最爲重要的,在這財政預算案中,似乎還未達到所謂的各族平等,部分預算案還是依據各族的需要而撥款,尤以教育部最爲嚴重。大馬國民追求的不是各族的平等,而是各階層的平等地位。扶貧政策,不分種族只著重階層差距。效率方面則是撥款用途,大馬各政府部門近年來的稽查報告都不過関,政府部門被儅冤大頭狠狠的砍,卻是人民在買單。

良好的政策,需要有效率的執行人,大馬人民只要求錢花得實際,能幫助他們經濟及生活有所提升。

Monday, October 4, 2010

最有價值的投資

最有價值的投資, The Most Valuable Investment


如何算是有價值的?value-在經濟學裏,價值與價錢(price)是其中一門重要的課。價值就是某東西/服務你認爲值得的,即滿足到你自身最大的欲望與滿足感(satisfaction of utility)。

那麽如何去衡量一樣東西的價值呢?其實,真的很難去定位與定義。問題在於每個人都有不同的想法與欲望,你要的並不是我要的。

馬先生認爲能成就2020宏願就是其最大的貢獻,在其心目中有著極高的價值;阿先生就認爲能成就到一個先進宗教囯,能在南部有個刻畫著其個人功績的發展計劃最能達成其心中最高價值的計劃;納先生則認爲能成就到全民團結,人民生活水平提高,大馬經濟体擴張,則是在其心中有著最高的價值。所以你說,是不是每個人都不同?

啊,離題了!還是簡單化...可能,我認爲一小時的工作酬勞能換來1公斤的白米,那麽對我而言1公斤的白米價值就是我1小時的工作酬勞。你卻認爲1公斤的白米只是你半小時工作酬勞的代價而已。那麽在我們心中,那一公斤的白米價值就不同而語咯!明或不明?

好的,定義工作大致完成,那麽就進入課題。

話説,上個星期五和朋友到購物中心逛逛。在等待他們排隊為日用品付錢時就不知覺的走到了金店鋪看看,哈哈!金光閃閃的,總是特別誘人,男生也不例外。

看了看,眼睛瞄了瞄價目表~~不是蓋的!好看些的,價值都上千了!然後嘆氣的和朋友說了句:“媽的,那麽好坑!一個結婚戒指就要去一個月薪水或以上!”。

朋友的回答,確實很經典!

“噯,你用一個月的薪水把人家給鎖上一輩子勒!這樣的投資,不是全都賺回來了嗎??”

真的聼君一席話,頓然驚醒夢中人!說得真得沒錯叻!這樣的投資,得到的投資囘報率一定是很大的。

記得其中一個信用卡的商業廣告,幸福是無价的(Happiness:Priceless!)~~

那麽單凴那麽說,是無法服眾的,對嗎?

那麽就粗略的算算咯!

一個月的工錢(或多過)= 一個結婚戒指
一個結婚戒指 = 一輩子的婚約
一輩子的婚約 = 一輩子的幸福

一輩子的幸福-如何得到呢?每天早上起身能看到她可愛的樣子,直到老去,能有個開心的一天。能吃到她煮出來的3餐,幸福及飽滿的過一天。兒孫滿堂,看著孩子慢慢長大的滿足感。還有很多很多的幸福點滴充實的一生。


曾經有看過一篇研究報告,幸福的價值大概是--我也忘了!但是比起孤獨一生,肯定與堅定語氣告訴你,

幸福一生〉孤獨一輩子

可能,你用了哪筆錢去了旅行,作爲買一輛車的頭期,或者大吃一頓滿漢全席,但是那種幸福與滿足的感覺就那一瞬間,一去不回頭。

也或者,你做了筆投資在市場上。雖然有風險,會賺但是同時也會虧。金錢的欲望是無止境的,賺得再多再多再厲害都好,能買到幸福的一輩子嗎?或則說一輩子的滿足感??

幸福〉金錢

呵呵,話説回頭,說得好像結婚有賺不虧,沒風險似的。從來,投資都是有風險的,沒風險的投資是騙人的!人家說養兒防老,這樣的投資也還不是帶有風險對嗎?

其實,簡單的道理永遠沒人相信,唯有親身體驗了才能讓人信服。

我也不知道,這筆投資是不是真的那麽賺???最有價值???投資囘酬最高??

“輸一個都係輸,輸兩個也係輸,不如博下入繙粒再打算”~~


剛看球時,毬評的評述。很有道理~~反正就一個月的薪水。對不?輸了,也沒損失;不介意的戒指可以再投資~~哈哈!

總結,價值這東西嘛,都是個人的,沒有對比數,也沒有參數~~自己就是衡量點。 所以嘛,以上論述適用于本人自身,不一定適合其它看官。本人對看官任何投資的結果並沒有法律上的責任,盈虧自負。謝謝!呵呵!